Ƙarƙashin ƙarfafa biyu na farfadowar buƙatu da rushewar sarkar samar da kayayyaki, farashin aluminium ya tashi zuwa babban shekaru 13. A sa'i daya kuma, cibiyoyi sun banbanta kan alkiblar masana'antar a nan gaba. Wasu manazarta sun yi imanin cewa farashin aluminum zai ci gaba da tashi. Kuma wasu cibiyoyi sun fara ba da gargadin kasuwar bear, suna masu cewa kololuwar ta isa.
Yayin da farashin aluminum ke ci gaba da tashi, Goldman Sachs da Citigroup sun haɓaka tsammanin farashin aluminum. Ƙididdiga na ƙarshe na Citigroup shine cewa a cikin watanni uku masu zuwa, farashin aluminum zai iya tashi zuwa dalar Amurka 2,900 / ton, kuma farashin aluminum na watanni 6-12 zai iya tashi zuwa dalar Amurka 3,100 / ton, kamar yadda farashin aluminum zai canza daga kasuwar bijimin mai zagaye zuwa tsari. kasuwar bijimi. Matsakaicin farashin aluminium ana tsammanin ya zama dalar Amurka 2,475/ton a cikin 2021 da dalar Amurka 3,010/ton shekara mai zuwa.
Goldman Sachs ya yi imanin cewa hangen nesa na samar da kayayyaki na duniya na iya lalacewa, kuma ana sa ran farashin aluminum na gaba zai kara karuwa, kuma farashin aluminum na gaba na watanni 12 masu zuwa ya tashi zuwa dalar Amurka 3,200 / ton.
Bugu da kari, babban masanin tattalin arziki na Trafigura Group, wani kamfani na kasuwancin kayayyaki na kasa da kasa, shi ma ya shaida wa kafofin yada labarai a ranar Talata cewa farashin aluminum zai ci gaba da yin tasiri mai kyau a yanayin bukatu mai karfi da zurfafa gibin samar da kayayyaki.
Muryar hankali
Amma a lokaci guda kuma, wasu muryoyi sun fara kira ga kasuwar ta nutsu. Mutumin da ya dace da ke kula da kungiyar masana'antar karafa ta kasar Sin ya ce ba da dadewa ba cewa farashin aluminium da aka maimaita akai-akai ba zai dore ba, kuma akwai "babban hadari guda uku da ba a tallafawa ba."
Mutumin da ke da alhakin ya ce abubuwan da ba su goyi bayan ci gaba da karuwar farashin aluminum sun hada da: babu shakka babu ƙarancin wutar lantarki ta hanyar samar da wutar lantarki, kuma dukkanin masana'antun suna yin ƙoƙari don tabbatar da wadata; karuwa a cikin farashin samar da aluminum na electrolytic ba shakka ba shi da girma kamar karuwar farashin; amfani na yanzu bai isa ba don tallafawa Irin wannan farashin aluminum mai girma.
Bugu da kari, ya kuma ambaci hadarin gyaran kasuwa. Ya ce karuwar farashin aluminium da aka samu a halin yanzu ya sanya kamfanonin sarrafa aluminium cikin bakin ciki. Idan masana'antun da ke ƙasa sun mamaye, ko ma sau ɗaya farashin aluminum ya hana amfani da tashar jiragen ruwa, za a sami madadin kayan aiki, wanda zai girgiza tushen karuwar farashin kuma ya kai ga Farashin yana ja da baya da sauri a babban matakin a cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci, yana samar da wani abu. hadarin tsarin.
Har ila yau, ma’aikacin da ke kula da harkokin kudi ya yi tsokaci kan tasirin tsaurara manufofin kudi na manyan bankunan tsakiya a duniya kan farashin aluminum. Ya ce yanayin saukaka kudaden da ba a taba yin irinsa ba shi ne babban abin da ke haifar da wannan zagaye na farashin kayayyaki, kuma da zarar tabarbarewar kudin ta fadi, farashin kayayyaki ma zai fuskanci hadari mai yawa.
Jorge Vazquez, manajan darektan Harbor Intelligence, wani kamfanin tuntuɓar Amurka, ya kuma yarda da ƙungiyar masana'antun masana'antar ƙarfe ta China. Ya ce bukatar aluminum ta wuce kololuwar sa.
"Muna ganin yanayin da ake bukata na tsarin a kasar Sin (don aluminum) yana raunana", haɗarin koma bayan masana'antu yana karuwa, kuma farashin aluminum na iya zama cikin haɗari na rushewa da sauri, in ji Vazquez a taron masana'antu na Harbour a ranar Alhamis.
Juyin mulkin kasar Guinea ya haifar da fargaba game da durkushewar iskar bauxite a kasuwannin duniya. Sai dai masana a masana'antar bauxite na kasar sun ce da wuya juyin mulkin ya yi wani babban tasiri na gajeren lokaci kan fitar da kayayyaki zuwa kasashen waje.
Lokacin aikawa: Satumba-13-2021