New Delhi: Tattalin arzikin Indiya da masana'antu masu rauni waɗanda suka dogara sosai kan ɗanyen mai kamar jiragen sama, jigilar kaya, tituna da sufuri na jirgin ƙasa za su iya amfana daga faɗuwar farashin ɗanyen mai kwatsam sakamakon barkewar cutar coronavirus a China, babbar mai shigo da mai a duniya, in ji masana tattalin arziki, manyan jami'ai da ƙwararru.
Ganin yadda masana'antu daban-daban ke sake daidaita dabarunsu yayin da ake rage hasashen buƙatar makamashi saboda barkewar cutar korona, manyan masu shigo da mai kamar Indiya suna neman cimma yarjejeniya mafi kyau. Indiya ita ce ƙasa ta uku mafi girma a duniya wajen shigo da mai kuma ta huɗu mafi girma wajen siyan iskar gas mai tsafta (LNG).
Kasuwar mai a halin yanzu tana fuskantar wani yanayi da ake kira contango, inda farashin man fetur ya yi ƙasa da kwangilolin gaba.
"Kimantawa daga hukumomi da dama na nuna cewa buƙatar ɗanyen mai na China a kwata na ɗaya zai ragu da kashi 15-20%, wanda hakan zai haifar da raguwar buƙatar ɗanyen mai a duniya. Wannan yana nuna farashin ɗanyen mai da LNG, waɗanda duka suna da kyau ga Indiya. Wannan zai taimaka wa Indiya a cikin ma'aunin tattalin arzikinta ta hanyar rage gibin asusun ajiyar kuɗi na yanzu, da kiyaye tsarin musayar kuɗi mai ɗorewa da kuma hauhawar farashin kaya," in ji Debasish Mishra, abokin hulɗa a Deloitte India.
Hukumar Makamashi ta Duniya (IEA) da Kungiyar Kasashen da ke Fitar da Man Fetur (OPEC) sun rage hasashen karuwar bukatar mai a duniya bayan barkewar cutar coronavirus.
Mishra ya ƙara da cewa, "Sassan kamar su jiragen sama, fenti, yumbu, wasu kayayyakin masana'antu, da sauransu za su amfana daga tsarin farashi mai sauƙi."
Indiya babbar cibiyar tace mai ce ta Asiya, wadda ke da ƙarfin samar da fiye da tan miliyan 249.4 a kowace shekara (mtpa) ta hanyar matatun mai guda 23. Kudin kwandon mai na Indiya, wanda matsakaicinsa ya kai dala $56.43 da $69.88 a kowace ganga a shekarar FY18 da FY19, bi da bi, ya kai matsakaicin dala $65.52 a watan Disamba na 2019, a cewar bayanai daga Tsarin Man Fetur da Nazarin Sashen. Farashin ya kasance dala $54.93 a kowace ganga a ranar 13 ga Fabrairu. Kwandon Indiya yana wakiltar matsakaicin man fetur na Oman, Dubai da Brent.
"A baya, farashin mai mai kyau ya ga ribar kamfanonin jiragen sama ta inganta sosai," in ji Kinjal Shah, mataimakin shugaban kamfanin kimanta kamfanoni na ICRA Ltd.
A tsakiyar koma bayan tattalin arziki, masana'antar zirga-zirgar jiragen sama ta Indiya ta samu karuwar fasinjoji da kashi 3.7% a shekarar 2019 zuwa fasinjoji miliyan 144.
"Wannan lokaci ne mai kyau ga kamfanonin jiragen sama su rama asarar da aka yi. Kamfanonin jiragen sama za su iya amfani da wannan don dawo da asarar da aka yi, yayin da matafiya za su iya amfani da wannan lokacin don tsara tafiya saboda farashin tikitin jirgin sama zai zama mai sauƙin amfani da aljihu," in ji Mark Martin, wanda ya kafa kuma babban jami'in gudanarwa a Martin Consulting Llc, wani mai ba da shawara kan harkokin jiragen sama.
Barkewar cutar coronavirus a China ya tilasta wa kamfanonin makamashi da ke can dakatar da kwangilolin isar da kayayyaki da kuma rage fitar da kayayyaki. Wannan ya shafi farashin mai a duniya da kuma farashin jigilar kaya. Rikicin ciniki da kuma koma bayan tattalin arzikin duniya suma suna da sarkakiya a kasuwannin makamashi.
Jami'ai a Majalisar Sinadarai ta Indiya, wata kungiya ta masana'antu, sun ce Indiya ta dogara ne da China wajen samun sinadarai a duk fadin sarkar darajar kayayyaki, inda wannan kasar ke da hannun jari a shigo da kayayyaki daga 10 zuwa 40%. Bangaren mai yana aiki a matsayin kashin bayan sauran fannoni daban-daban na masana'antu da wadanda ba na masana'antu ba kamar kayayyakin more rayuwa, motoci, yadi da kayayyakin amfani.
"Ana shigo da kayayyaki iri-iri da kuma masu shiga tsakani daga China. Duk da cewa, zuwa yanzu, kamfanonin da ke shigo da waɗannan kayayyaki ba su da wani tasiri sosai, tsarin samar da kayayyaki nasu yana raguwa. Don haka, suna iya jin wani tasiri a nan gaba idan lamarin bai inganta ba," in ji Sudhir Shenoy, shugaban ƙasar kuma babban jami'in kamfanin Dow Chemical International Pvt. Ltd.
Wannan zai iya amfanar masu samar da sinadarai na roba a cikin gida, electrodes na graphite, carbon black, dyes da pigments domin ƙarancin shigo da kayayyaki daga China na iya tilasta wa masu amfani da su su samo su a cikin gida.
Rage farashin danyen mai kuma yana kawo labari mai daɗi ga asusun gwamnati a tsakanin ƙarancin kudaden shiga da kuma hauhawar gibin kasafin kuɗi. Ganin yadda aka samu ƙaruwar kuɗaɗen shiga, ministan kuɗi Nirmala Sitharaman, yayin da take gabatar da kasafin kuɗin Tarayyar Turai, ta yi amfani da wannan sashe na warware matsalar don ɗaukar matakai 50 na rage gibin kasafin kuɗi na 2019-20, inda ta ɗauki hasashen da aka yi wa kwaskwarima zuwa kashi 3.8% na GDP.
Gwamnan RBI Shaktikanta Das a ranar Asabar ya ce raguwar farashin mai zai yi tasiri mai kyau ga hauhawar farashin kaya. "Babban karuwar farashin mai yana zuwa ne daga hauhawar farashin abinci, wato, kayan lambu da abubuwan gina jiki. Babban hauhawar farashin ya ɗan ƙaru saboda sake fasalin harajin sadarwa," in ji shi.
Sakamakon raguwar masana'antu a Indiya, yawan fitar da kayayyaki daga masana'antun ya ragu a watan Disamba, yayin da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a kasuwanni ya karu a cikin wata na shida a jere a watan Janairu, wanda ya haifar da shakku game da tsarin farfado da tattalin arzikin da ke tasowa. Ofishin Kididdiga na Kasa ya kiyasta cewa ci gaban tattalin arzikin Indiya ya kai kaso 5% na shekaru 11 a 2019-20 sakamakon jinkirin amfani da kayayyaki da kuma bukatar saka hannun jari.
Madan Sabnavis, babban masanin tattalin arziki a CARE Ratings, ya ce raguwar farashin mai ya zama alheri ga Indiya. "Duk da haka, ba za a iya kawar da matsin lamba daga sama ba, tare da tsammanin rage wasu daga cikin OPEC da sauran ƙasashen da ke fitar da mai. Saboda haka, muna buƙatar mayar da hankali kan yadda za mu ƙara fitar da mai da kuma duba yadda za mu yi amfani da dalilin rage farashin mai, wato, coronavirus, da kuma tura kayanmu zuwa China, yayin da muke neman madadin masu samar da kayayyaki kan shigo da kaya. Abin farin ciki, saboda ci gaba da kwararar jari, matsin lamba kan rupee ba matsala ba ce," in ji shi.
Ganin yadda OPEC ke damuwa game da yanayin buƙatar mai, za ta iya ci gaba da taronta na 5-6 ga Maris, inda kwamitin fasaha na OPEC ya ba da shawarar rage tsarin na ɗan lokaci ga OPEC+.
"Saboda ingancin shigo da kayayyaki daga Gabas, tasirin da zai yi wa tashoshin jiragen ruwa na kwantena kamar JNPT (Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust) zai yi yawa, yayin da tasirin zai yi tasiri ga tashar jiragen ruwa ta Mundra," in ji Jagannarayan Padmanabhan, darektan kuma jagoran ayyuka na sufuri da dabaru a Crisil Infrastructure Advisory. "Abin da ke faruwa shi ne cewa wasu daga cikin masana'antun na iya canzawa daga China zuwa Indiya na ɗan lokaci."
Duk da cewa hauhawar farashin danyen mai sakamakon karuwar takaddama tsakanin Amurka da Iran bai daɗe ba, barkewar cutar coronavirus da kuma raguwar fitar da kayayyaki da kasashen OPEC ke shirin yi sun haifar da rashin tabbas.
"Ko da yake farashin mai ya yi ƙasa, farashin musayar kuɗi (rupee akan dala) yana ƙaruwa, wanda hakan kuma yana haifar da hauhawar farashi. Muna jin daɗin lokacin da rupee yake kusan 65-70 akan dala. Tunda babban ɓangare na kuɗaɗen da muke kashewa, gami da na man jirgin sama, ana biyan su ne a cikin dalar Amurka, musayar kuɗi ta ƙasashen waje muhimmin ɓangare ne na kuɗaɗen da muke kashewa," in ji wani babban jami'i a wani kamfanin jirgin sama mai rahusa da ke New Delhi, wanda ba a so a bayyana sunansa.
Tabbas, karuwar bukatar mai na iya sake tayar da farashin da zai iya haifar da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki da kuma cutar da buƙatu.
Karin farashin mai kuma yana da tasiri kai tsaye ta hanyar hauhawar farashin samar da kayayyaki da sufuri da kuma kara matsin lamba kan hauhawar farashin abinci. Duk wani kokari na rage wa masu amfani da man fetur da dizal nauyi zai kawo cikas ga tara kudaden shiga.
Ravindra Sonavane, Kalpana Pathak, Asit Ranjan Mishra, Shreya Nandi, Rhik Kundu, Navadha Pandey da Gireesh Chandra Prasad sun ba da gudummawa ga wannan labarin.
Yanzu kun yi rajista don samun wasiƙun labarai. Idan ba za ku iya samun imel daga ɓangarenmu ba, da fatan za ku duba babban fayil ɗin spam.
Lokacin Saƙo: Afrilu-28-2021