A ƙarƙashin sau biyu na farfaɗo da buƙatu da kuma katsewar sarkar samar da kayayyaki, farashin aluminum ya tashi zuwa mafi girma na shekaru 13. A lokaci guda, cibiyoyi sun bambanta kan alkiblar da masana'antar za ta fuskanta a nan gaba. Wasu masu sharhi suna ganin cewa farashin aluminum zai ci gaba da hauhawa. Kuma wasu cibiyoyi sun fara bayar da gargaɗin kasuwar bear, suna cewa kololuwar ta zo.
Yayin da farashin aluminum ke ci gaba da hauhawa, Goldman Sachs da Citigroup sun ɗaga tsammaninsu game da farashin aluminum. Sabon kiyasin Citigroup shine cewa a cikin watanni uku masu zuwa, farashin aluminum na iya tashi zuwa dala 2,900/ton, kuma farashin aluminum na watanni 6-12 na iya tashi zuwa dala 3,100/ton, yayin da farashin aluminum zai canza daga kasuwar bijimin mai zagaye zuwa kasuwar bijimin mai tsari. Ana sa ran matsakaicin farashin aluminum zai kasance dala 2,475/ton a 2021 da dala 3,010/ton a shekara mai zuwa.
Goldman Sachs ya yi imanin cewa hasashen sarkar samar da kayayyaki ta duniya na iya tabarbarewa, kuma ana sa ran farashin aluminum na gaba zai kara hauhawa, kuma farashin aluminum na gaba zai karu zuwa dala $3,200/ton.
Bugu da ƙari, babban masanin tattalin arziki na Trafigura Group, wani kamfanin cinikin kayayyaki na duniya, shi ma ya shaida wa manema labarai a ranar Talata cewa farashin aluminum zai ci gaba da kaiwa ga matsayi mafi girma a fannin buƙatar da kuma ƙara gibin samar da kayayyaki.
Murya mai hankali
Amma a lokaci guda, ƙarin muryoyi sun fara kira ga kasuwar ta kwantar da hankali. Mutumin da ya dace da ke kula da Ƙungiyar Masana'antar Karfe ta China Nonferrous ya ce ba da daɗewa ba cewa hauhawar farashin aluminum da ake maimaitawa ba zai iya dorewa ba, kuma akwai "manyan haɗari guda uku marasa goyon baya da kuma manyan haɗari guda biyu."
Mutumin da ke kula da harkokin ya ce abubuwan da ba sa goyon bayan ci gaba da hauhawar farashin aluminum sun haɗa da: babu wata ƙaranci a bayyane na samar da aluminum mai amfani da electrolytic, kuma dukkan masana'antu suna yin duk mai yiwuwa don tabbatar da wadata; karuwar farashin samar da aluminum mai amfani da electrolytic a bayyane yake ba ta kai hauhawar farashi ba; yawan amfani da aluminum a yanzu bai isa ya tallafa wa irin wannan hauhawar farashin aluminum ba.
Bugu da ƙari, ya kuma ambaci haɗarin gyara kasuwa. Ya ce ƙaruwar farashin aluminum a halin yanzu ya sanya kamfanonin sarrafa aluminum cikin mawuyacin hali. Idan masana'antun da ke ƙasa suka mamaye, ko ma da zarar farashin aluminum ya yi tashin gwauron zabi, za a sami wasu kayayyaki, waɗanda za su girgiza tushen hauhawar farashi kuma su haifar da Farashin ya ja da baya da sauri a babban mataki cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci, wanda ke haifar da haɗarin tsarin.
Mutumin da ke kula da harkokin kuɗi ya kuma ambaci tasirin tsaurara manufofin kuɗi na manyan bankunan tsakiya a duniya kan farashin aluminum. Ya ce yanayin rage darajar kuɗi da ba a taɓa gani ba shi ne babban abin da ke haifar da wannan zagayen farashin kayayyaki, kuma da zarar canjin farashin ya faɗi, farashin kayayyaki zai fuskanci manyan haɗurra na tsarin.
Jorge Vazquez, manajan darakta na Harbor Intelligence, wani kamfanin ba da shawara na Amurka, shi ma ya yarda da ƙungiyar masana'antar ƙarfe ta China Nonferrous. Ya ce buƙatar aluminum ta wuce kololuwarta a zagaye.
"Muna ganin yadda buƙatar tsarin gini ke raguwa a China (ga aluminum)", haɗarin koma bayan tattalin arziki a masana'antu yana ƙaruwa, kuma farashin aluminum na iya fuskantar haɗarin rugujewa cikin sauri, in ji Vazquez a taron masana'antar Harbor ranar Alhamis.
Juyin mulkin Guinea ya haifar da damuwa game da katsewar tsarin samar da kayan bauxite a kasuwar duniya. Duk da haka, kwararru a masana'antar bauxite ta kasar sun ce da wuya juyin mulkin ya yi wani babban tasiri ga fitar da kayayyaki zuwa kasashen waje na ɗan gajeren lokaci.
Lokacin Saƙo: Satumba-13-2021