Mene ne manyan abubuwan da ke tasiri ga sauyin farashin man fetur mai siffar graphitized a kasuwa?

Manyan Abubuwan Da Ke Tasirin Sauyin Farashi a Kasuwar Man Fetur ta Graphitized Coke

I. Bangaren Buƙata: Faɗaɗa Masana'antu na Ƙasa da Fitowar Sabbin Sassan

1. Bukatar Masana'antar Electrolytic Aluminum da Graphite Electrode
   Coke mai siffar graphitized yana aiki a matsayin babban kayan aiki don anodes da aka riga aka gasa a masana'antar aluminum mai siffar electrolytic kuma muhimmin abu a cikin masana'antar lantarki mai siffar graphite. Sauye-sauye a cikin ƙarfin aluminum mai siffar electrolytic yana shafar buƙata kai tsaye:
   • 2017–2018: Ƙara yawan samar da ƙarfe a cikin tanderun lantarki ya haifar da ƙaruwar buƙatar lantarki ta graphite, inda farashin man fetur ya tashi daga RMB 1,200/tan zuwa sama da RMB 7,000/tan.
   • 2024: Takunkumin fitar da hayakin carbon ya tilasta wa wasu kamfanonin aluminum rage yawan samar da makamashi, wanda hakan ya rage bukatar man fetur da kuma sanya matsin lamba kan farashi.
   • Sashen adana makamashin batir: Ƙara yawan buƙatar na'urorin lantarki na graphite ya ƙara ƙaruwar farashin man fetur na coke.
2. Bukatar Kayan Anode a Batirin Lithium
   • 2024: Bukatar kayayyakin anode na batirin lithium a duniya ya kai tan miliyan 2.2, wanda ke buƙatar sama da tan miliyan 3 na man fetur, amma ainihin wadatar ya tsaya a tan miliyan 2.6 kawai, wanda ya haifar da gibin wadata da kashi 13%.
   • 2025: Kamfanonin kayan anode na kasar Sin sun tsara samar da tan miliyan 5 na wutar lantarki (wanda ya zarce yawan bukatar da ake da ita a duniya na tan miliyan 3.5), wanda hakan ya kara tsananta gasar samar da kayan aiki da kuma kara farashin man fetur mai karancin sulfur kusan RMB 6,000/ton, karuwar kashi 150% daga farkon shekarar 2023.
3. Bukatar Masana'antar Photovoltaic Ta ƙaru
   • 2024: Bukatar man fetur mai siffar photovoltaic a duniya ta karu da kashi 35%, inda masu samar da kayan silicon (misali, Tongwei, GCL) ke fafatawa don albarkatun coke marasa sinadarin sulfur, wanda hakan ya sa farashin ya yi tashin gwauron zabi.

II. Bangaren Samar da Kaya: Matsewar Ƙarfi da Rushewar Sarkar Samar da Kaya

1. Ƙarfin Tace Mai
   • Manufofin "Kabon Mai Guda Biyu" na Duniya: Saurin rage ƙarfin tacewa a Turai da Amurka ya haifar da raguwar ƙarfin tacewa na Turai da kashi 8% a kowace shekara da kuma raguwar kashi 12% a tsakanin masu tace mai na shale na Amurka a shekarar 2024, wanda hakan ya rage yawan samar da coke mai ƙarancin sulfur sosai.
   • Rufe matatun mai na China: A watan Fabrairun 2025, matatun mai masu zaman kansu na Shandong (Guangrao, Rizhao, Zibo) sun sanar da rufewa ba tare da wani lokaci ba, wanda hakan ya ƙara tsananta samar da kayayyaki a kasuwa.
2. Hasashe na Kayayyaki da Tara na 'Yan kasuwa
   • Tara Kuɗin 'Yan Kasuwa: A shekarar 2024, 'yan kasuwa sun tara tarin kayayyaki mafi girma, wanda ya rage yawan hannun jarin tashoshin jiragen ruwa na cikin gida daga tan miliyan 2 a shekarar 2023 zuwa tan 800,000, wanda hakan ya haifar da "ƙarancin ƙarya."
   • Dogaro da shigo da kayayyaki daga ƙasashen waje: China ta shigo da sinadarin coke mai yawan sulfur daga Rasha da Venezuela, ta amfani da hanyoyin rage yawan sulfur don rage matsin lamba ga samar da kayayyaki, kodayake farashin ya karu da kashi 5%.
3. Tashin Hankali a Siyasar Ƙasa da Shingayen Ciniki
   • Takunkumin fitar da graphite daga Amurka zuwa China: An tilasta wa kamfanonin kayan anode na kasar Sin su dogara da man fetur na cikin gida, wanda hakan ke kara matsin lamba ga bukatar cikin gida.
   • Yaɗuwar farashin ɗanyen mai: A shekarar 2024, farashin mai na ƙasashen duniya ya karya darajar dala $120 a kowace ganga, wanda hakan ya sa masu tace mai suka rage yawan man da suke samarwa, wanda hakan ya ƙara ta'azzara ƙarancin man fetur.

III. Manufofi da Dokokin Muhalli: Karin Farashi da Sauya Fasaha

1. Manufofin Muhalli Masu Tsauri
   • Yawan buƙatar coke mai ƙarancin sulfur: Coke mai ƙarancin sulfur (ƙaramin sinadarin sulfur <0.5%) ya ga buƙatu mafi girma fiye da coke mai yawan sulfur saboda bin ƙa'idodin muhalli, wanda hakan ya faɗaɗa gibin farashi.
   • Karin farashin samar da kayayyaki: Karin farashin da ake kashewa wajen kiyaye muhalli ga masu samar da man fetur ya kara farashin da ya karu.
2. Barazanar Sauya Fasaha
   • Ƙarar anodes masu tushen silicon: Yawan samar da batirin Tesla na 4680 tare da anodes na silicon-carbon ya inganta yawan kuzari da kashi 20%. Tsawon lokacin farashin coke mai tsada zai iya haɓaka wannan yanayin maye gurbin.
   • Farfaɗowar Graphite na halitta: Graphite na halitta da aka gyara a saman (misali, rufin nano-silicon carbide) ya sami damar rayuwa ta zagayowar da ta wuce zagaye 2,000 a ƙarancin farashi fiye da graphite na roba, wanda ya maye gurbin buƙatar coke na man fetur kaɗan.

IV. Ra'ayin Kasuwa da Hasashe kan Jari

1. Rarraba Hanyoyin Canja Farashi
   • Matsin Farashi a Kasa: Manyan kamfanonin batirin lithium na kasar Sin sun bukaci a rage farashin kayayyakin anode 15%, wanda hakan ya rage ribar da masu samar da coke na man fetur ke samu daga kashi 35% zuwa 8%.
   • Tsawaita wa'adin biyan kuɗi: Zagayen da ake iya karɓar kuɗi daga kwanaki 90 zuwa 180, wanda hakan ke ƙara haɗarin kwararar kuɗi ga ƙananan da matsakaitan kamfanoni.
2. Kumfa Mai Ƙarfi da Haɗin Kan Masana'antu
   • Yawan Kasuwa: CR5 (manyan kamfanoni biyar) ya ga karuwar kaso a kasuwa daga kashi 70% zuwa kashi 85%, inda kamfanonin da ke da hannu a harkar suka fice gaba daya.
   • Gasar cin kofin duniya: Kamfanonin Japan da Koriya ta Kudu (misali, POSCO Chemical) sun hanzarta sayen masu samar da kayayyaki na biyu na kasar Sin don kama sauran hannun jarin kasuwa.

V. Hasashen Nan Gaba: Daidaiton Samar da Buƙatu da Ma'aunin Sauya Farashi

1. Matsi na Ƙasa
   • 2H 2025: Ana sa ran sabon ƙarfin tacewa a Gabas ta Tsakiya da Indiya zai rage gibin samar da coke mai ƙarancin sulfur zuwa kashi 5%.
2. Hadarin da Ya Kamata a Yi
   • Man fetur sama da dala 150 a kowace ganga: Yawan amfani da man fetur na tsawon lokaci zai iya haifar da farashin man fetur zuwa RMB 8,000 a kowace tan.
3. Canje-canje a Taswirar Fasaha
   • Graphite na roba: Kasuwar za ta ragu daga kashi 80% zuwa 60%, wanda hakan zai ci gaba da zama babbar hanyar.
   • Graphite na halitta: Raba zai karu daga 15% zuwa 25%, wanda ke amfani da fa'idodin farashi.
   • Carbon mai tushen silicon/mai tauri: Raba zai ƙaru daga kashi 5% zuwa 15%, wanda zai buɗe matakin girma na biyu.