Binciken Yanayin Farashi da Muhimman Abubuwan da Ke Tasirin Coke Mai Zane (Daga Ra'ayin 2025)
I. Yanayin Farashi: Karuwar Na ɗan gajeren lokaci sai Bambanci, Taimakon Na Dogon Lokaci Tare da Gibin Buƙatar Samarwa
1. Aikin Farashi a 2025
- Coke mai ƙarancin sulfur ya jagoranci wannan gagarumin ci gaba: Sakamakon ƙaruwar buƙatar kayan anode a cikin sabbin motocin makamashi, farashin coke mai ƙarancin sulfur ya tashi da sauri a farkon 2025. Misali, farashin coke mai ƙarancin sulfur daga Fushun Petrochemical ya karu daga yuan 3,000/ton a watan Disamba na 2024 zuwa yuan 3,500/ton a watan Janairu na 2025, inda wasu farashin gwanjo suka wuce yuan 4,200/ton.
- Coke mai matsakaicin girma zuwa babba ya biyo baya: Farashin coke mai matsakaicin girma tsakanin yuan 2,400 zuwa 2,900 a kowace tan, yayin da coke mai yawan sulfur ya kama daga yuan 1,300 zuwa 1,800 a kowace tan. Duk da cewa karuwar su ta yi ƙasa da ta coke mai ƙarancin sulfur, sun nuna ci gaba gaba ɗaya.
- An tallafa da gibin da ake da shi tsakanin wadata da buƙata: Ana sa ran gibin da ake da shi tsakanin wadata da buƙata na tan 870,000 a shekarar 2025 zai haifar da matsakaicin farashin shekara-shekara tsakanin yuan 3,000-4,000/tan.
2. Hasashen shekarar 2026
- Karin farashi matsakaici: An yi hasashen cewa gibin da ake da shi tsakanin bukatar samar da kayayyaki zai ragu zuwa tan 660,000, amma ana sa ran rabon sabbin bukatar makamashi zai karu zuwa kashi 21%, wanda hakan zai kara farashin da ake samu a kowace shekara tsakanin yuan 3,200-4,200 a kowace tan, yayin da coke mai ƙarancin sulfur zai iya wuce yuan 4,000 a kowace tan.
- Bambancin Tsarin: Farashin coke mai yawan sulfur zai ci gaba da zama ƙasa saboda wadataccen wadata, wanda zai iya canzawa tsakanin yuan 1,500-2,000/tan.
II. Muhimman Abubuwan Da Ke Tasiri: Hulɗar Buƙatu, Samarwa, da Manufofi Mai Kusurwoyi Uku
1. Bangaren Buƙata: Ci gaban Tsarin da Sabon Juyin Juya Halin Makamashi ya Kafa
- Kayan aikin anode na batirin Lithium-ion: A shekarar 2024, buƙatar kayan anode ya kai kashi 8% na jimillar amfani da coke na mai, kuma ana hasashen wannan kaso zai karu zuwa kashi 11% nan da shekarar 2026. Sabbin ƙarin ƙarfin aiki a sabbin sassan adana makamashi da motocin samar da makamashi da suka wuce tan miliyan 5.96 a kowace shekara za su ƙara buƙatar coke mai ƙarancin sulfur kai tsaye.
- Rashin ƙarfi a fannoni na gargajiya: Bukatar da ake da ita a fannin carbon da mai ta ci gaba da raguwa, tare da ƙarancin ƙarfin siye saboda ƙarancin riba. Misali, kamfanonin carbon sun rage sayayya a tsakanin ƙarancin buƙatar masana'antar aluminum (tare da gyara farashin aluminum a shekarar 2025), yayin da fannin mai ya maye gurbin coke mai yawan sulfur da kwal mai rahusa (matsakaicin kusan yuan 500/tan a shekarar 2025).
2. Gefen Samarwa: Ƙarfin Ƙarfi Mai Iyaka da Matsi na Kuɗi
- Fadada yawan aiki a cikin gida a hankali: Ba a shirya sabbin na'urorin sarrafa coke da aka jinkirta ba a shekarar 2025, kuma karin harajin shigo da mai daga waje (wanda zai fara aiki daga ranar 1 ga Janairu, 2025) ya rage yawan aiki a matatun mai masu zaman kansu, inda matatun mai da ke Shandong ke fuskantar raguwar mafi girma, wanda hakan ke takaita yawan amfani da su a cikin gida.
- Rashin isassun kayayyaki daga ƙasashen waje: Samar da ƙananan coke ba shi da sinadarin sulfur a Turai da Amurka saboda yawan sinadarin sulfur a cikin ɗanyen mai, wanda hakan ke haifar da dogaro da shigo da shi daga ƙasashen waje akai-akai.
3. Bangaren Manufofi: Takamaimai Biyu daga Manufofin Muhalli da Ciniki
- Takaitawar samar da muhalli: Bukatar man fetur mai ƙarancin sulfur (tare da sinadarin sulfur <0.5%) ya ƙaru saboda bin ƙa'idodin muhalli, yayin da masana'antu masu yawan carbon kamar aluminum mai amfani da electrolytic suka fuskanci raguwar samarwa a ƙarƙashin ƙa'idojin manufofi, wanda hakan ke shafar buƙatar man fetur.
- Takaddama a fannin ciniki: Duk da cewa raguwar buƙatar kasuwa ta duniya ko sauyin farashin musayar kuɗi na iya yin tasiri ga farashin cikin gida, gyaran jadawalin kuɗin man fetur na 2025 ya ƙara farashin kai tsaye ga masu tace mai masu zaman kansu, wanda hakan ya zama babban abin da ke haifar da raguwar wadatar kayayyaki.
4. Gefen Kuɗi: Yaɗuwar Canjin Farashin Ɗanyen Mai
- Rage farashin tallafi: Ana sa ran matsakaicin farashin danyen mai na Brent zai kasance 67/barrelin2025 kuma zai iya faduwa zuwa 51/ganga a shekarar 2026 (an yi hasashen EIA), wanda zai rage hauhawar farashin man fetur na coke.
- Tasirin ribar matatar mai: Idan farashin danyen mai ya yi tsada, masu tace mai suna ƙara yawan samar da mai mai sauƙi ta hanyar jinkirin yin coking, wanda hakan ke ƙara yawan samar da coke na mai. Akasin haka, coke na man fetur yana zama ƙarin riba, yana tallafawa farashi.
III. Haɗari da Damammaki na Nan Gaba
1. Haɗarin da Ba shi da Kyau
- Faduwar farashin mai a duniya ba zato ba tsammani: Idan matsakaicin farashin danyen mai na Brent ya faɗi ƙasa da dala $50 a kowace ganga, farashin man fetur na iya raguwa.
- Bukatar da ta fi rauni fiye da yadda ake tsammani: Yawan ƙarfin da ake samu a cikin kayan anode na batirin lithium-ion ko raguwar samar da aluminum mai amfani da wutar lantarki (wanda ba zato ba tsammani) na iya rage buƙata.
2. Hadarin da ke tattare da shi
- Karin raguwar samar da kayayyaki a matatun mai masu zaman kansu: Idan farashin aiki a matatun mai masu zaman kansu da ke Shandong ya faɗi ƙasa da kashi 50%, ƙarancin wadatar kayayyaki na iya ƙara farashin.
- Sabuwar buƙatar makamashi mai ƙarfi fiye da yadda ake tsammani: Idan rabon kayan anode na batirin lithium-ion ya tashi zuwa kashi 15%, farashin coke mai tsada zai iya wuce yuan 4,500 a kowace tan.
IV. Kammalawa: Damar Tsarin Gine-gine A Tsakanin Babban Sauyi
Ana sa ran farashin man fetur mai siffar graphitized coke zai ci gaba da canzawa cikin shekaru biyu masu zuwa, inda coke mai ƙarancin sulfur ya bayyana a matsayin babban abin da ke haifar da ci gaban tattalin arziki saboda sabbin buƙatun makamashi, yayin da coke mai matsakaicin girma zuwa matsakaici zai ga ƙarancin ƙaruwa saboda iska mai ƙarfi a fannoni na gargajiya. Ya kamata masu zuba jari su sa ido sosai:
- Ci gaba a cikin sabon ɓangaren makamashi (misali, tallace-tallacen motocin lantarki, ƙaddamar da aikin adana makamashi);
- Yawan aikin matatun mai na cikin gida (musamman canje-canjen manufofi da suka shafi matatun mai masu zaman kansu);
- Sauye-sauye a farashin mai na ƙasashen duniya (tasirin watsawa da farashi);
- Ƙarfin aiwatar da manufofin muhalli (yana shafar wadata da buƙata).
Dangane da manufofin "kabon biyu" na kasar Sin da kuma sauyin makamashi, kasuwar man fetur mai siffar graphitized coke tana fuskantar sauyi daga man fetur na gargajiya zuwa sabbin kayan makamashi, tare da karancin coke mai ƙarancin sulfur wanda ke ba da juriya ga farashi na dogon lokaci.
Lokacin Saƙo: Nuwamba-14-2025